China s economy;Not with a bang

　　中國經濟;不咋地;

　　China s property prices and its local-governmentdebt have started rising again. That may be a goodthing

　　中國的房地產價格和地方政府債務又開始上升了，這或許是件好事

　　FangZhuang, a high-rise neighbourhood tuckedinside Beijing s third ring road, was one of China sfirst commercial housing projects. Its fourdivisions share a park, schools, a courthouse and aCarrefour supermarket. Characters in the divisions four names combine to mean stars ofthe ancient world. Back in 1990 Fangzhuang flats sold for about 1,500 yuan per square metre, according to Credit Suisse, a bank. Since then, prices havereached for the stars of the modern world, exceeding 30,000 yuan in that part of Beijing.

　　擠在北京三環內的高層住宅區方莊，曾是中國第一個商業住宅項目。它的四個小區共用一個公園、學校、一個法院和一個家樂福超市。將這四個小區名字中間的漢字連起來就是古城群星。根據瑞士信貸一家銀行，早在1990年，方莊公寓大概賣1500元一平米。從那以后，價格就成了當世巨星，北京那一塊的價格超過了3萬元。

　　China s unruly property market was once dubbed, with excusable hyperbole, the mostimportant sector in the entire global economy by Jonathan Anderson, then at UBS, anotherSwiss bank. It remains the biggest fear hanging over the world s second-biggest economy.Home prices began falling about a year ago. The declines have depressed investment andcurtailed economic growth, which slowed to 7.6% in the second quarter, its slowest rate since2009.

　　中國不規范的房地產市場曾被當時在瑞銀信貸另一家瑞士銀行的喬納森安德森封為整個全球經濟中最重要的部分，運用了適當的夸張。它還是懸在世界第二大經濟體之上的最大擔憂。住宅價格約一年前開始下跌。該下跌抑制了投資，還縮減了經濟增長，二季度經濟增長減緩至7.6%2009年以來最慢的增長率。

　　The only economic anxiety to rival property is local-government debt. Estimated at 10.7trillion yuan at the end of 2010 by official auditors , muchof it was held at one remove by so-called local-government financing vehicles. When onesuch, Yunnan Highway Development and Investment, told creditors in 2011 that it would notrepay the principal on their loans, it was described as the defaultheard around the world by Business Insider, a news website.

　　唯一能與房地產匹敵的經濟上的憂慮就是地方政府債務了。2010年底官方審計部門估計有1.7萬億元，其中很多隔離出來讓所謂的地方政府融資平臺持有。當這樣的一家公司云南高速公路開發投資公司，在2011年告訴債權人將不會歸還他們貸款的本金時，這被一家資訊網站《商業內幕》形容為地球人都知道的違約。

　　Both worries have roots in the stimulus spree on which China embarked in November 2008.State-owned enterprises began bidding enthusiastically in land auctions, and localgovernments let their pet projects run wild. Ever since, the two problems have preoccupiedChina s central government. In April 2010 it put curbs on speculative homebuying and spentmuch of last year tidying up local finances. This spring, Wen Jiabao, the prime minister,boasted that local-government debt had grown by a mere 300m yuan in 2011.

　　這些憂慮都源于中國2008年11月著手的經濟刺激計劃。國有企業開始在土地拍賣中狂熱地競標，而地方政府讓他猛寵愛的項目撒野了。從此，這兩個問題就困擾中國的中央政府了。在2010年4月，它開始限制投資性住房的買入，還用了去年大部分時間清理地方融資問題。今年春季，總理溫家寶自豪地說，2011年地方政府債務只增長了3個億。

　　Signs, however, are growing that both property prices and local-government borrowing arerising again. China s National Bureau of Statistics reports that new home prices rose inJune in 25 of 70 cities it tracks. They fell in only 21. Sales volumes also strengthened.Prices are still lower, on average, than a year ago. But according to our weighted average ofthe home prices reported by the NBS, the pace of decline appears to bebottoming out . By next month , prices may be risingagain, year-on-year.

　　不過，房地產價格和地方政府借款又再增加的跡象開始浮現了。中國國家統計局報告稱，六月份它所追蹤的70座城市中有25座的新房價格增長了。只有21座城市的下跌了，成交量也增加了。平均價格仍比一年以前便宜。不過，根據我們對統計局報告中房屋價格的加權平均，下降的步伐貌似要見底回升了。到下個月，與去年同期相比，價格可能又要漲了。

　　Local governments meanwhile have been given leave from their debtors prison. Reportssuggest that China s banking regulator has told banks to increase lending to betterqualified financing vehicles. These vehicles have also increased their bond sales, issuingover 420 billion yuan-worth of paper already this year.

　　同時，地方政府也被放出了借款者的牢籠。報告稱，中國銀行也監管機構已經讓各家銀行對更有資格的融資平臺增加貸款。這些融資平臺也早就增發他們的債券，今年就已經發行了價值超過4200億元的紙張了。

　　These twin turnarounds might be good newsa sign that property prices have stabilised andlocal governments have restored their creditworthiness. But they could also be signs ofdesperation, evidence that the central government has lost its nerve in the face of fallinggrowth.

　　這一對轉變可能是個好消息標志著房地場價格已趨于平穩，而且地方政府也已重鑄其貸款信譽。但這也可能是絕境的信號，證明中央政府已經在下降的經濟增長面前失去了勇氣。

　　The rise in local-government borrowing is something in between: a defensible response to aworrying slowdown. China s economy does need help, and its government has ample scopeto provide it. Some local governments took on more debt than they could handle. But theirliabilities never endangered the fiscal position of the country as a whole. The combined debtsof China s central and local governments add up to about 50% of the country s GDP . Even if local debts are understated, China has fiscal room forerror. Local governments will also borrow less and invest better than they did in theprevious stimulus effort, argues Peng Wensheng of China International Capital Corporation,a Chinese investment bank. The pressure for policy easing is much less now than it was inNovember 2008, he says.

　　地方政府借款的增長介于兩者之間：是對令人憂愁的增長減速的防御性反應。中國經濟確實需要幫助，而且政府也有足夠的能力提供幫助。一些地方政府承擔的債務大到自己無法處理，但它們的債務還無法危及整個國家的財政狀況。中國中央和地方政府的債務總合加起來差不多到國家GDP的50% 。就算地方政府的債務被低估了，中國也有容納誤差的財政空間。地方政府也會少借點，并且比他們在以前努力刺激時期投資得好一些，中金公司的彭文生反駁道，中金公司是一家中國的投行。他說，目前進行政策寬松的壓力要比2008年11月時的小很多。

　　The rebound in the property market is harder to interpret. It may also reflect amisreading of government policy. Some local governments have eased property curbssurreptitiously, hoping to revive construction jobs and land sales . The central government is also keen to encourage first-time homebuyers. But itinsists that it will still strictly enforce existing curbs on people, especially out-of-towners,buying more than one home. This week the State Council, China s cabinet, said it wouldsend inspectors to 16 cities and provinces to curb backsliding.

　　房地產市場的回彈則更難解釋。它也可能反應出了對政府政策的誤讀。有些地方政府希望復蘇建筑業的就業和土地出讓，已經偷偷放松了房地產的限制。中央政府也期望能夠鼓勵初次購房者。但它也堅持仍將嚴格實施目前的限制，尤其是對外地人和購買多套住房者。本周，中國的議會國務院聲明它將派出巡視員到16個省市去控制倒行逆施。

　　Yet in most cities, says Jinsong Du of Credit Suisse, it is ever easier to circumvent the rules.He cites one high-profile launch in Shanghai where the flats went for 3m Dollar each. Eventhe estate agents on site admitted that most buyers already owned several other properties.

　　瑞士信貸的杜勁松說，但在大多數城市，很容易繞開這些規定。他以上海舉了個印象深刻的例子，上海公寓達到了300萬美元一套。就連房產中介都承認很多購買者已經擁有了好幾處別的房地產。

　　But surely if China s property market was a burst bubble, even a forthright relaxation ofcontrols would not reflate it? After America s property prices began falling in earnest,policymakers tried in vain for years to revive them. Japan has been trying to perk up pricesfor more than 20 years.

　　不過毫無疑問，如果中國房地產市場是破裂的泡沫，就算是直接放松管制也不會讓它再膨脹的。美國房地產價格開始下跌之后，政策制定者們試了好幾年來重振它們都于事無補。日本試著恢復價格都已經試了20多年了。

　　China s property dynamics may differ, however. In many asset bubbles, prices are pushedup by greedy investors, who borrow heavily to buy. When their creditors get nervous, theydefault or dump their assets. These fire sales quickly feed on themselves. But China sproperty-buyers are often wealthy firms and individuals looking for somewhere to park theirsavings. Certainly, they see property as an investment. But they do not necessarily expectprices to go through the roof. Give them any prospect of beating inflation in the long run,and they will buy. China, after all, offers few other options.

　　不過，中國房地產動態可能不同。在很多資產泡沫中，價格被貪婪的投資者推高，他們借了很多去買的。當他們的債權人變得焦急時，他們就會違約或者傾售其資產。這些減價銷售很快相互刺激惡化。但中國的房地產購買者常常是一些尋求存放其儲蓄之處的富有公司和個人。當然，他們把房地產視為一種投資。不過他們當然沒有預料到房價會飛漲。給他們任何預期能夠在長期跑贏通脹的，他們都會買的。畢竟，中國沒有提供別的選擇。

　　China s economy;Not with a bang

　　中國經濟;不咋地;

　　China s property prices and its local-governmentdebt have started rising again. That may be a goodthing

　　中國的房地產價格和地方政府債務又開始上升了，這或許是件好事

　　FangZhuang, a high-rise neighbourhood tuckedinside Beijing s third ring road, was one of China sfirst commercial housing projects. Its fourdivisions share a park, schools, a courthouse and aCarrefour supermarket. Characters in the divisions four names combine to mean stars ofthe ancient world. Back in 1990 Fangzhuang flats sold for about 1,500 yuan per square metre, according to Credit Suisse, a bank. Since then, prices havereached for the stars of the modern world, exceeding 30,000 yuan in that part of Beijing.

　　擠在北京三環內的高層住宅區方莊，曾是中國第一個商業住宅項目。它的四個小區共用一個公園、學校、一個法院和一個家樂福超市。將這四個小區名字中間的漢字連起來就是古城群星。根據瑞士信貸一家銀行，早在1990年，方莊公寓大概賣1500元一平米。從那以后，價格就成了當世巨星，北京那一塊的價格超過了3萬元。

　　China s unruly property market was once dubbed, with excusable hyperbole, the mostimportant sector in the entire global economy by Jonathan Anderson, then at UBS, anotherSwiss bank. It remains the biggest fear hanging over the world s second-biggest economy.Home prices began falling about a year ago. The declines have depressed investment andcurtailed economic growth, which slowed to 7.6% in the second quarter, its slowest rate since2009.

　　中國不規范的房地產市場曾被當時在瑞銀信貸另一家瑞士銀行的喬納森安德森封為整個全球經濟中最重要的部分，運用了適當的夸張。它還是懸在世界第二大經濟體之上的最大擔憂。住宅價格約一年前開始下跌。該下跌抑制了投資，還縮減了經濟增長，二季度經濟增長減緩至7.6%2009年以來最慢的增長率。

　　The only economic anxiety to rival property is local-government debt. Estimated at 10.7trillion yuan at the end of 2010 by official auditors , muchof it was held at one remove by so-called local-government financing vehicles. When onesuch, Yunnan Highway Development and Investment, told creditors in 2011 that it would notrepay the principal on their loans, it was described as the defaultheard around the world by Business Insider, a news website.

　　唯一能與房地產匹敵的經濟上的憂慮就是地方政府債務了。2010年底官方審計部門估計有1.7萬億元，其中很多隔離出來讓所謂的地方政府融資平臺持有。當這樣的一家公司云南高速公路開發投資公司，在2011年告訴債權人將不會歸還他們貸款的本金時，這被一家資訊網站《商業內幕》形容為地球人都知道的違約。

　　Both worries have roots in the stimulus spree on which China embarked in November 2008.State-owned enterprises began bidding enthusiastically in land auctions, and localgovernments let their pet projects run wild. Ever since, the two problems have preoccupiedChina s central government. In April 2010 it put curbs on speculative homebuying and spentmuch of last year tidying up local finances. This spring, Wen Jiabao, the prime minister,boasted that local-government debt had grown by a mere 300m yuan in 2011.

　　這些憂慮都源于中國2008年11月著手的經濟刺激計劃。國有企業開始在土地拍賣中狂熱地競標，而地方政府讓他猛寵愛的項目撒野了。從此，這兩個問題就困擾中國的中央政府了。在2010年4月，它開始限制投資性住房的買入，還用了去年大部分時間清理地方融資問題。今年春季，總理溫家寶自豪地說，2011年地方政府債務只增長了3個億。

　　Signs, however, are growing that both property prices and local-government borrowing arerising again. China s National Bureau of Statistics reports that new home prices rose inJune in 25 of 70 cities it tracks. They fell in only 21. Sales volumes also strengthened.Prices are still lower, on average, than a year ago. But according to our weighted average ofthe home prices reported by the NBS, the pace of decline appears to bebottoming out . By next month , prices may be risingagain, year-on-year.

　　不過，房地產價格和地方政府借款又再增加的跡象開始浮現了。中國國家統計局報告稱，六月份它所追蹤的70座城市中有25座的新房價格增長了。只有21座城市的下跌了，成交量也增加了。平均價格仍比一年以前便宜。不過，根據我們對統計局報告中房屋價格的加權平均，下降的步伐貌似要見底回升了。到下個月，與去年同期相比，價格可能又要漲了。

　　Local governments meanwhile have been given leave from their debtors prison. Reportssuggest that China s banking regulator has told banks to increase lending to betterqualified financing vehicles. These vehicles have also increased their bond sales, issuingover 420 billion yuan-worth of paper already this year.

　　同時，地方政府也被放出了借款者的牢籠。報告稱，中國銀行也監管機構已經讓各家銀行對更有資格的融資平臺增加貸款。這些融資平臺也早就增發他們的債券，今年就已經發行了價值超過4200億元的紙張了。

　　These twin turnarounds might be good newsa sign that property prices have stabilised andlocal governments have restored their creditworthiness. But they could also be signs ofdesperation, evidence that the central government has lost its nerve in the face of fallinggrowth.

　　這一對轉變可能是個好消息標志著房地場價格已趨于平穩，而且地方政府也已重鑄其貸款信譽。但這也可能是絕境的信號，證明中央政府已經在下降的經濟增長面前失去了勇氣。

　　The rise in local-government borrowing is something in between: a defensible response to aworrying slowdown. China s economy does need help, and its government has ample scopeto provide it. Some local governments took on more debt than they could handle. But theirliabilities never endangered the fiscal position of the country as a whole. The combined debtsof China s central and local governments add up to about 50% of the country s GDP . Even if local debts are understated, China has fiscal room forerror. Local governments will also borrow less and invest better than they did in theprevious stimulus effort, argues Peng Wensheng of China International Capital Corporation,a Chinese investment bank. The pressure for policy easing is much less now than it was inNovember 2008, he says.

　　地方政府借款的增長介于兩者之間：是對令人憂愁的增長減速的防御性反應。中國經濟確實需要幫助，而且政府也有足夠的能力提供幫助。一些地方政府承擔的債務大到自己無法處理，但它們的債務還無法危及整個國家的財政狀況。中國中央和地方政府的債務總合加起來差不多到國家GDP的50% 。就算地方政府的債務被低估了，中國也有容納誤差的財政空間。地方政府也會少借點，并且比他們在以前努力刺激時期投資得好一些，中金公司的彭文生反駁道，中金公司是一家中國的投行。他說，目前進行政策寬松的壓力要比2008年11月時的小很多。

　　The rebound in the property market is harder to interpret. It may also reflect amisreading of government policy. Some local governments have eased property curbssurreptitiously, hoping to revive construction jobs and land sales . The central government is also keen to encourage first-time homebuyers. But itinsists that it will still strictly enforce existing curbs on people, especially out-of-towners,buying more than one home. This week the State Council, China s cabinet, said it wouldsend inspectors to 16 cities and provinces to curb backsliding.

　　房地產市場的回彈則更難解釋。它也可能反應出了對政府政策的誤讀。有些地方政府希望復蘇建筑業的就業和土地出讓，已經偷偷放松了房地產的限制。中央政府也期望能夠鼓勵初次購房者。但它也堅持仍將嚴格實施目前的限制，尤其是對外地人和購買多套住房者。本周，中國的議會國務院聲明它將派出巡視員到16個省市去控制倒行逆施。

　　Yet in most cities, says Jinsong Du of Credit Suisse, it is ever easier to circumvent the rules.He cites one high-profile launch in Shanghai where the flats went for 3m Dollar each. Eventhe estate agents on site admitted that most buyers already owned several other properties.

　　瑞士信貸的杜勁松說，但在大多數城市，很容易繞開這些規定。他以上海舉了個印象深刻的例子，上海公寓達到了300萬美元一套。就連房產中介都承認很多購買者已經擁有了好幾處別的房地產。

　　But surely if China s property market was a burst bubble, even a forthright relaxation ofcontrols would not reflate it? After America s property prices began falling in earnest,policymakers tried in vain for years to revive them. Japan has been trying to perk up pricesfor more than 20 years.

　　不過毫無疑問，如果中國房地產市場是破裂的泡沫，就算是直接放松管制也不會讓它再膨脹的。美國房地產價格開始下跌之后，政策制定者們試了好幾年來重振它們都于事無補。日本試著恢復價格都已經試了20多年了。

　　China s property dynamics may differ, however. In many asset bubbles, prices are pushedup by greedy investors, who borrow heavily to buy. When their creditors get nervous, theydefault or dump their assets. These fire sales quickly feed on themselves. But China sproperty-buyers are often wealthy firms and individuals looking for somewhere to park theirsavings. Certainly, they see property as an investment. But they do not necessarily expectprices to go through the roof. Give them any prospect of beating inflation in the long run,and they will buy. China, after all, offers few other options.

　　不過，中國房地產動態可能不同。在很多資產泡沫中，價格被貪婪的投資者推高，他們借了很多去買的。當他們的債權人變得焦急時，他們就會違約或者傾售其資產。這些減價銷售很快相互刺激惡化。但中國的房地產購買者常常是一些尋求存放其儲蓄之處的富有公司和個人。當然，他們把房地產視為一種投資。不過他們當然沒有預料到房價會飛漲。給他們任何預期能夠在長期跑贏通脹的，他們都會買的。畢竟，中國沒有提供別的選擇。